Steve Matthews’ Belmont at the Big A selections for Thursday, Sept. 25

Best bet: SYSTEMIC CHANGE (5)

Best value: MR. PAPAGIORGIO (7)

FIRST: Brooklyn Dantz overcame soft fractions and wide trip to win last; more to come. Rodeo Star is speedy and gets favorable cutback; dangerous. Dolce Sera needed last and drops; price will be tempting.

SECOND: Auroralinna ships in for capable Penn-based barn; two crisp half-mile works since last start seal the deal. Carolina Smokeshow should pack enhanced kick with cutback to sprint. Handle On You exits game placing at this level in last; must consider.

THIRD: Filly Crystal projects as the main speed with proper handling. Beautiful Crazy could be in the garden spot if top selection hits the wall. Watdoyousay Jose was a hard-charging winner in debut; must be factored into the mix.

FOURTH: Supreme Good gets class relief and returns to turf; three works in the interim are the clincher. You’re Lookin Good was a useful sixth in debut; improvement expected. Natural Shooter could be aided by today’s longer trip.

FIFTH: Systemic Change regressed in last after clear-cut win in prior; rebounds. Sagamore Mischief fired 5-furlong bullet since determined score in last; very dangerous. Ridgewood Runner was a fast-figured fifth in last; worth long look.

SIXTH: Catholic Vice logged non-stressful seventh in debut; forward move predicted. Never Heather owns speed and starts from the hedge; must consider. Copper Caduceus is from a dam that has thrown three turf winners; follow the money.

SEVENTH: Mr. Papagiorgio was freshened after winning two in a row this past summer; picks up where he left off. Certified Loverboy owns speed and fast figures; likely underlay. Wynstock, an uncoupled barn mate of second pick, drops and makes peak start of form cycle; right in the thick of this.

EIGHTH: Hello Beauty gets rider upgrade, moves to new barn and sheds the blinkers; breakthrough predicted. Off Script owns four seconds and a third from five starts; another minor award? Sky Low Low was a much-improved second in last; don’t overlook. Charmeuse fired eye-catching half-mile bullet on Sept. 10; charting a must.